The immediate reaction of pundits in the financial world to the Brexit vote in the UK was one of shock, quickly followed by near-panic. Share prices had been buoyant just before the vote, in the belief that a Remain result was assured. But they fell sharply on the day the result was announced, and they fell further on the following trading day. The general view was that Brexit would lead to significant economic disruption and, in all probability, recession.
On the 17th October 2013 the United States of America Treasury estimates that it will no longer be able to sell bonds to raise money to pay for Federal Government expenses.
The release of three major US economic indicators over the last two weeks, are all pointing to the fact the US economy has been picking up steam since March 2013. If the US economy can sustain this stronger growth over the coming year than the US economy will be in good shape to sustain strong growth over the coming years. A strong growing US economy will go a long way in helping the global economy; including New Zealand’s economy to grow at a higher level.
In July 2013, the United States of America’s (US) Bureau of Labour Statistics (BLS) has released data on the US’s employment and unemployment for the June 2013 month. In the month of June 2013, America’s non-farm employment increased by 195,000 to 144 million, after a 195,000 increase in the May 2013 month.
While employment rose in March 2013, it was the smallest increase in monthly employment since June 2012, according to the released data on the US’s employment and unemployment for the March 2013 month by the United States of America’s (US) Bureau of Labour Statistics (BLS) The average monthly increase over the year to March 2013 was 159,000.
On Monday 25th March (NZ time), the Cypriot Government along with the heads of the European Union (EU), the European Central Bank, and the International Monetary Fund, came to an agreement about how Cyprus would raise the €5.8 billion from its banking sector.
GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2012 dropped by 0.1 percent according to the data release on 30th January 2013 by the United States of America’s Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
On 12th December 2012 the US Federal Reserve announced, for the first time, its explicit stimulus thresholds. The Federal Reserve announced that it will hold official rates at 0.25 percent for as long as the US unemployment rate was above 6.5 percent, and that inflation two years out is no more than 0.5 percent above the Federal Reserve 2 percent long-run goal.
The United States of America’s (US) Bureau of Economic Analysis has released data on the US GDP for the September 2012 quarter.
The news out of the United States continues to be bad on all fronts. Unemployment sits at 8.1 percent (2.6m job losses in the last four months, and 851,000 in February alone). Even the usual productivity gains are absent, down 0.4 percent in the fourth quarter. And for the first time (yes, the first time) in the current downturn, the United States is in a technical recession, having suffered two consecutive quarters of shrinkage. All of which tells us the irrelevance of such word games and technicalities. House sales continue to drop (-48 percent on last January), and with interest rates at 0-0.25 percent, other measures will have to work.
Try as you might, it’s hard to find positive news out of the United States. We could try and put a positive spin on the numbers: the number of jobless increased in May, but by half the average number in the previous six months.
The refinancing rate in the Eurozone was held steady at 4% in September, in line with decisions by monetary authorities in most major economies. This was to counter the jitters caused by the subprime debacle. This was in an environment, where, just weeks before the 6 September meeting of the European Central Bank (ECB), most economists had been predicting a 25 basis point rise.